See the EV of a shove or semi-bluff — enter the pot, your bet, how often they fold and your equity when called. Runs entirely in your browser.
| Bet (% pot) | Pure bluff 0% equity | With a draw 20% equity | Strong draw 40% equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 33% | 9% | always +EV |
| 75% | 43% | 20% | always +EV |
| 100% | 50% | 29% | always +EV |
| 150% | 60% | 41% | always +EV |
Fold equity is the profit you make when your opponent folds. The more equity you hold when called (a draw, overcards), the less often they need to fold for the bet to profit — which is why semi-bluffs beat pure bluffs: you win two ways.
Betting wins the pot two ways: when they fold now, and when you hit later. Fold equity is how you put a number on the first one.
When you bet or shove, you can win without the best hand — every time your opponent folds. That's fold equity: the share of the pot you pick up through their folds. Add it to the equity your hand keeps when called and a bet that looks like a punt becomes clearly profitable. It's why a flush draw is often better as a raise than a call — you win when you hit and when they fold.
A pure bluff has to steal often enough to cover the times it gets called and loses. A semi-bluff — a bet with a draw or overcards — needs far fewer folds, because the times you're called you still win a chunk. This calculator puts a number on it: enter how often they fold and how much equity you keep when called, and see the EV of shoving versus giving up, plus the exact fold percentage you need.
Enter the pot and bet, estimate the folds and your equity, read the EV.
Type the current pot and the size of the bet or shove you're considering, in chips or big blinds — any consistent unit.
Set how often you think they fold, and your equity when called — 0% for a pure bluff, more for a draw or overcards.
You get the EV of betting versus giving up, and the minimum fold percentage that makes the bet break even.
You hold 9♥ 8♥ and the flop comes 7♥ 6♠ 2♦. This is a monster draw disguised as air: an open-ended straight draw (any ten or five makes the straight) plus a flush draw (any heart), and even a pair of your overcards can play. Add it up and you have well over 50% equity even when you get called — you're often the favourite in a race. That changes everything about the shove. A pure bluff into a pot-sized bet needs the villain to fold about half the time just to break even. This hand barely needs folds at all: the times they call, you win more than your share at showdown, so almost any fold equity on top is pure profit. That's the whole point of a semi-bluff — you win when they fold now, and you win a big chunk of the time they don't.
Verdict — shove the combo draw: you win when they fold and when you hitFix Fold equity is only worth what the specific villain actually folds. Against an unknown, be conservative about how often your shove gets through before you bank on it.
Fix Treating a semi-bluff like a pure bluff throws away half its value. A draw wins a real share of the pots that go to showdown, which is exactly why it needs fewer folds than air.
Fix If they call everything, your fold equity is near zero — so shove your value and draws for the equity, not the bluff, and stop expecting folds that never come.
Fix Players call more than you hope, especially for the last bet. Plug a realistic fold percentage into the calculator; a shove that needs 60% folds is a loser if they only fold 40%.
Three questions on fold equity and semi-bluffs. Decide, then check the reasoning.
You make a pure bluff (0% equity when called) shoving a pot-sized bet. Roughly how often must the villain fold to break even?
With no equity when called, the shove only wins when they fold. A pot-sized bet risks one to win one, so it needs to work about half the time — fold more than ~50% and it profits.
Why does a draw need fewer folds than a pure bluff to break even?
A draw keeps equity when called, so the called branch loses far less than a pure bluff's. The cheaper the called branch, the fewer folds you need for the shove to profit overall.
What is a semi-bluff?
A semi-bluff is a bet or raise with a hand that isn't best yet but can get there — a straight or flush draw, overcards. It wins two ways: folds now, or the draw hitting later.
You scored 0 / 3. The more you drill this, the faster the maths becomes instinct.
Fold equity is the extra value you gain from the chance that your opponent folds to your bet or raise. Your total EV is your hand's equity when called plus the pot you win outright every time they fold.
EV of betting = fold% × pot + (1 − fold%) × (your equity × (pot + 2 × bet) − bet), measured against giving up. This tool computes it live and also solves the fold percentage you need to break even.
A bet or raise made with a hand that isn't best yet but can improve — a flush draw, a straight draw, overcards. It wins two ways: opponents fold now, or you hit later. Semi-bluffs need far fewer folds to profit than pure bluffs.
Because when you do get called, a hand with equity still wins some of the time, so the called branch costs you less. The less it costs when called, the fewer folds you need for the bet to show a profit overall.
No — it applies to any bet or raise that can make a better hand fold. It's easiest to calculate on a shove because the called branch goes straight to showdown, but the same logic drives every profitable bluff and semi-bluff.