Build any decision outcome by outcome — set each chance and result, and get the expected value of the whole line. Instant, in your browser.
Expected value is the average result of a decision if you could make it thousands of times: multiply each outcome's chance by what you win or lose, then add them up. A positive EV play makes money over the long run even when a single hand loses; a negative-EV play bleeds chips no matter how it turns out this once. Every good poker decision is just picking the highest-EV line — this tool lets you compare them branch by branch.
Win the hand or lose it, the question is always the same: was it the highest-EV play? Build the spot and let the math answer.
Poker isn't about winning the hand in front of you — it's about making the play that wins the most over thousands of identical spots. That's expected value: the average outcome of a decision, weighing every branch by how likely it is. Fold, call, raise, bluff — the right choice is simply the one with the highest EV, and a losing result on a +EV play is just variance doing its job.
Where a pot-odds check answers a single call, an EV table lets you lay out a full line and total it: 'they fold 45% and I win the pot, they call 55% and I lose my bet.' Add every branch — folds, calls that win, calls that lose, the times you improve — and the sum tells you whether the line prints or leaks. It's the same math that underpins the fold equity and pot odds tools, laid out so you can build any spot yourself.
List the outcomes, set chances and results, read the average.
Add a row for each way the hand can end — they fold, you get called and win, you get called and lose, and so on. Name each so it's clear.
For each outcome, enter how likely it is (the chances should total 100%) and how many chips you win or lose — losses go in as negative.
The total is your average result per decision. Positive means the line profits long-term; compare two lines by building each and seeing which is higher.
You bet 75 into a 100-chip pot on the river as a bluff. You put villain's fold at 45%: fold and the 100 pot is yours, call (the other 55%) and your 75 is gone. Lay both branches out and total them — EV = (0.45 × 100) + (0.55 × −75) = 45 − 41.25 = +3.75. It's a thin edge, but it's real: run this exact spot a thousand times and you finish 3,750 chips ahead. The trap is judging it by tonight's result — get snapped off and lose the 75 and the bet was still correct. You made a +EV wager; the coin just landed on the 55% side. Nothing about that one hand changes the math for the next thousand.
Verdict — fire the bluff: +3.75 EV, so it prints over the long run even on the hands it losesFix Results-oriented thinking. A +EV play loses plenty of individual times — that's variance, not a leak. Grade the decision, not the river card.
Fix Adding the folds but skipping the calls that snap you off inflates every number. Every branch that can happen — wins and losses — belongs in the sum.
Fix The branches must cover every way the hand can end. If your chances total 90% or 110%, the average is distorted before you even multiply.
Fix Pot odds price a single call to break even. EV totals every branch of a whole line — bluffs, semi-bluffs, multiway — so don't reach for one when you need the other.
Three spots. Do the math in your head, then check it.
A coin flip pays +200 when you win (50%) and costs you 100 when you lose (50%). What's the EV?
EV = (0.50 × 200) + (0.50 × −100) = 100 − 50 = +50. Each branch is weighted by its probability, then summed. A profitable flip even though you lose half the time.
You made a clearly +EV bluff and got called and lost. Was it a mistake?
EV is a long-run average, not a promise about one hand. A +EV decision that loses this time is variance doing its job. Judge the choice by its EV, never by a single result.
What's the difference between EV and pot odds?
Pot odds answer one question — does this single call break even? EV is broader: it sums folds, wins and losses across a whole line, so it can value bluffs and multiway spots a pot-odds check can't.
You scored 0 / 3. The more you drill this, the faster the maths becomes instinct.
Expected value is the average result of a decision made many times over. You calculate it by multiplying each possible outcome by its probability and adding them up. A positive EV play makes money in the long run; a negative EV play loses it.
EV = the sum of (probability × amount won or lost) across every outcome. For a bluff that wins 100 when they fold 45% of the time and loses 75 when called 55%: (0.45 × 100) + (0.55 × −75) = 45 − 41.25 = +3.75, a small profit.
Because EV is a long-run average, not a promise about one hand. A play that's +EV can and will lose plenty of individual times — that's variance. Judge decisions by their EV, not by how a single hand turned out.
Yes. The outcomes should cover every way the hand can end, so their chances sum to 100%. The tool warns you when they don't, since a total above or below 100% distorts the average.
Pot odds tell you the minimum equity a single call needs to break even. EV is broader: it totals every branch of a decision — folds, wins, losses — so you can compare entire lines, including bluffs and multi-way spots, not just one call.